Senate Democrats Recruiting Outlook

By Mike Mullen, Manager, BIPAC

2014 was not a good year for Senate Democrats. The map was not in their favor, and they were forced to throw the kitchen sink at Republicans in red states while playing constant defense in purple states. The result was a loss of their majority in the Upper Chamber, a significant roadblock to advancing President Obama's agenda. Despite this, Democrats across the country have not been discouraged, which can be seen through their recruitment of candidates for the Senate.

Perhaps the best indicator of Democratic confidence is Rep. Patrick Murphy giving up his House seat to run for the open Senate seat in Florida. Murphy's current district voted for Romney in 2012 by four points, but favored Murphy in 2014 by 19.6 points. Murphy is a moderate democrat who emphasizes bipartisanship, a persona that Democrats think will translate very well in this swing state in 2016. Murphy chose to leave his comfortable House seat to pursue the toss up Senate seat, proving that he believes he can win.

In Ohio, the Democratic bench for statewide candidates is not particularly deep, but they did get their best recruit to commit to a run in former Governor Ted Strickland. Strickland lost re-election for Governor in 2010 to John Kasich, a year that was awful for Democrats everywhere. He has a deep network and is very close with the Clintons. He's going to need all the resources he can get to defeat Republican Senator Rob Portman, one of the best fundraisers in the country. The 2008 recession, which occurred during his governorship, hit Ohio harder than most other states and unemployment rates soared during his last two years in office. Strickland's biggest challenge will be overcoming this and striking the right tone that can win independents while still motivating progressives. Portman is one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, so both candidates will likely make a play for the middle.

California is the biggest and one of the most diverse states in the country, which one would think would allow for several candidates from diverse backgrounds to vie for the Senate seat left open by Barbara Boxer. However, Attorney General Kamala Harris has consolidated establishment support around her candidacy and has sufficient support from grassroots activists. Others, particularly Hispanic politicians, are considering launching bids, but Harris has made that an increasingly difficult prospect. Barring a shocking upset, she appears poised to become the next Senator from the Golden State.

In Nevada, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's retirement created an open seat in this swing state. It did not take long for him to name his desired replacement, former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, and as a result she has received early support from donors and activists. Some others are still considering bids, like Rep. Dina Titus, but Democrats appear resolved to avoid a bloody primary in Nevada.

Democrats feel good about their first declared candidate in Illinois as well, Rep. Tammy Duckworth. A veteran who lost both her legs in a helicopter crash in Iraq, Duckworth has a very unique story to tell. Attorney General Lisa Madigan is still considering a bid, and national Democrats would be pleased with whichever candidate came through the primary. Republican Senator Mark Kirk is also a veteran and is one of the most centrist Senators in the Chamber, but 2016 will be a tough year for him to win statewide in Illinois.

Democrats are working hard to recruit well known candidates who have previously held statewide office in Wisconsin and New Hampshire, with their courtship of former Senator Russ Feingold and Governor Maggie Hassan. Feingold lost to Republican Senator Ron Johnson in 2010 by five points, but Democrats believe he would be aided in a presidential year in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican for President since 1988. Feingold recently resigned his post at the State Department, fueling speculation about the possibility of his candidacy. Governor Hassan of New Hampshire would present quite the challenge for Senator Kelly Ayotte (R). Governors have to run every two years in New Hampshire anyway, so it's possible Hassan will accept the challenge, seeing little downside.   

Not every state has been easy in terms of recruitment for Democrats. In Pennsylvania, former Congressman and retired Navy Admiral Joe Sestak is running, but many in the Democratic establishment are hoping he faces a primary challenge. Sestak has a history of scoffing at party leaders, rejecting President Obama's plea not to run for the nomination for the same seat in 2010, eventually winning the Democratic primary over party switching Senator Arlen Specter before losing in November. Like many other states, the 2010 and 2014 elections were a huge setback for Democrats in Pennsylvania, and as a result interest among the party is sparse. Despite this, many are holding out hope that someone else will emerge and win the nomination to challenge Republican Senator Pat Toomey.