Ohio Primary Election Recap

Romney Wins Ohio, Congressional Primary Season Kicks Off

Republican Presidential Candidate Recap

Following the results of Super Tuesday, below is a candidate status update from Michael Davis with the Business Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC):

Mitt Romney: 

• Won Ohio, Idaho, Massachusetts (his home state), Vermont, Virginia (where Santorum and Gingrich failed to get on the ballot) and Alaska.
• Has an estimated GOP delegate count of 404 (55 percent).
• The most delegates, the most victories, the most money raised, and the best campaign organization all add up to Romney continuing to remain the GOP frontrunner. However, a few of the upcoming states are not the best match for Romney, but his delegate advantage will continue for at least the remainder of this month.

Rick Santorum:

• Won North Dakota, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
• Has an estimated GOP delegate count of 165 (22 percent).
• A strong victory in Tennessee and a good showing in Ohio keeps Santorum going and firmly establishes him as the strongest challenger to Romney. 

Newt Gingrich:

• Won Georgia (his home state).
• Has an estimated GOP delegate count of 106 (14 percent).
• One win, no second place finishes, three thirds, five fourths and failed to compete in one state does not add up to a significant number of delegates or a path to victory. Strong wins next week in Alabama and Mississippi will only delay the inevitable.

Ron Paul:

• Has an estimated GOP delegate count of 66 (8 percent).
• His strategy has been to collect delegates and run strong in caucus states. Without a victory in a primary or caucus state and trailing a distant fourth in the delegate count, a path to the nomination has nearly disappeared at this point. Paul will continue to push his message and will continue to demonstrate a base of support in every contest.

In the delegate battle, the victories in six states for Romney provided bigger delegate net gains. Wins in Virginia, Massachusetts and Vermont lead to a near sweep in the delegates from these three states. Santorum’s three victories will likely allow him to gain no more than twenty delegates on Romney.

Due to the process of awarding delegates proportionally, the race to mathematically win the GOP nomination is going to take many more states and months before a candidate tops the needed number of delegates to secure the nomination – 1,144. At this point in a four-way contest, according to media projections, Romney has secured 55 percent of the delegates awarded and now has 35 percent of the delegates needed to win the GOP nomination.

According to an article by Davis, there are at least two significant questions to be considered over the next few weeks. First, despite not being able to mathematically win the nomination any time soon, will Romney emerge as the only remaining viable candidate by the end of March? Second, will a long nomination battle help or hurt Republicans against President Obama in November? He shared that Republicans hope that the attention and being battle tested will offset the negatives from a tough and often personal battle in the primary.

To get up-to-the-date results, visit the BIPAC Super Tuesday Election Center.

Super Tuesday Ohio Recap

Romney won only a few counties, but they were the large counties in the metro areas of Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland and Canton that carried large enough margins to offset the rural areas of the state. This victory map resembles several state victories by Barack Obama in 2008. Santorum was further hurt in the delegate race in a few congressional districts by not meeting all of the necessary requirements. Catholic voters are a key voting group to win in Ohio and Romney won 44 perecent to Santorum’s 31 percent. For the Republicans to win the White House, it is nearly impossible to see a path without winning Ohio. With 99 percent reporting Romney captured 452,575 votes to 440,472 for Santorum for a narrow 38 percent to 37 percent victory.

To view recaps for other states, click here.

Ohio Kicks Off Congressional Primary Season

While most of the attention across the country was on the 10 states holding contests for the GOP presidential nomination, Ohio kicked off the congressional primary season with some fireworks. Two incumbents were defeated on Tuesday and thus set the stage for what will result in a high turnover of incumbents and another large freshman class. The next U.S. House will clearly have a majority of members with three or fewer terms of service.

• Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt lost a tough contest to Army Reserves Major and political newcomer, Dr. Brad Wenstrup, by six points in OH-2 (with 99 percent of precincts reporting). Rep. Schmidt was first elected in a high profile special election in October 2005. Wenstrup criticized Schmidt on her fiscal credentials and on her votes to raise the debt ceiling while he received the support from several Ohio Tea Party groups. Wenstrup will be the favored candidate in the general election against either William Smith or David Krikorian. With 99 percent reporting, Smith holds a narrow 42-vote lead.
• In the first of at least 11 Member vs. Member contests of 2012, Rep. Marcy Kaptur handily defeated Rep. Dennis Kucinich in the OH-9 Democratic primary. Kaptur and Kucinich were paired together as a result of redistricting into a district along Lake Erie that will be pointed to as one of the most gerrymandered districts in the country. Despite Kucinich's eight terms in Congress and recognition at the national level from his two attempted presidential runs, Kaptur easily defeated him with a 16-point margin of victory. Kucinich and Kaptur were known to be long time friends, but both candidates ran heated campaigns against each other. In the end, Kaptur had a significant advantage since most of the redrawn district was previously in her “old” congressional district. Kaptur will face Samuel "Joe" Wurzelbacher, better known as "Joe the Plumber" from the 2008 presidential campaign, in November.
• In what will likely turn into a competitive and highly watched U.S. Senate race, incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) ran unopposed while Josh Mandel (R) received 63 perecent of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. Brown is in his first term in the Senate following eight terms in the House while Mandel is currently serving as the Ohio State Treasurer.
• In other notable races, former Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) was narrowly defeated in a four-way primary in OH-3 despite receiving the endorsement of Rep. Nancy Pelosi. Former state representative Joyce Beatty (D) will face off against Chris Long (R) in this newly drawn district. The other Member vs. Member contest that is now officially set up for November is in OH-16 where Rep. Jim Renacci (R) will battle against Rep. Betty Sutton (D). Both were unopposed in the primary.

You can view all of the Ohio Congressional results at the BIPAC Super Tuesday Election Center.