De-Mythifying the 2008 Electorate in the Context of 2012

By Bernadette A. Budde, BIPAC

Young first-time voters put Barack Obama in the White House, right? In reality, there was only a 1-percent increase in first time voters, from 10 percent to 11 percent of the overall turnout in four years. Those under 30 years old increased from 17 percent to 18 percent of the electorate between the 2004 and 2008 election. This much-heralded mythical coalition was outmatched by older folks who come to the polls every cycle.

It wasn’t the demographics of 2008 that dictated the outcome as much as it was the choices made by those who appeared at the polls. Mainstream America proved to be remarkably persuadable not only in their shift away from partisanship to independence, but from one type of candidate to another. Nearly every segment of the populace fell in its support for Senator John McCain compared to their choices four years earlier, including regular church-goers and evangelical Christians. There were four subsets in national exit polls which backed President George W. Bush in 2004 but switched to Obama in 2008: Catholics, full-time employees, those with kids under 18, and individuals who did not finish college. These are hardly revolutionary profiles, nor are they socio-economic groups we don’t see seven days a week. They are us, our families, friends and neighbors.

Two-thirds of the voters said they owned shares in the market or were married to someone who did. Shareholder households voted for Obama, 50 percent to 48 percent. With so many households invested in the market, we’re becoming a nation dependent on economic growth to secure our income stream, almost from cradle to grave. Our employees, their families, along with our retirees and shareholders, have a common interest in private sector growth. Socialists? I’d argue we are now all capitalists.

Shortly after taking office, President Barack Obama was asked what would happen if his stimulus/budget package failed to turn the economy around. He said simply, “You’ll be looking at a new president.” Not only did he recognize his or any elected official’s vulnerabilities to fickle voting blocs, he understood the dynamics of a more discerning multi-generation electorate.

Think about the complicated voter targeting strategies in this year’s Presidential campaign. The Baby Boomers are well on their way to age 65, Medicare beneficiaries, and ready for full Social Security benefits sometime soon. Dependent on 401k or other investments, those of us in this huge demographic cohort are running out of time to secure our generation’s version of the American dream. The other end of the age scale presents a different political challenge. Miley Cyrus and each of the Jonas Brothers are first-time voters, in college or entry-level jobs. Coming of age at a time of economic uncertainty, they are the first wireless technology generation who feel a bond of friendship with people they’ve never met who live anywhere in the world.

Time-trapped political strategists still talk about policies and outreach designed to capture Soccer Moms and NASCAR Dads. That is so last century. Babies born in 1994, too young to know anything about Bill and Monica or Newt and DeLay, have turned or are turning 18 this year. They may have gone to rallies to catch the magic with older siblings in 2008. Chances are they have used a cell phone since they were 10, and a computer since kindergarten. They may never read a newspaper, and rarely watch television news, unless they consider Jon Stewart an anchorman. First-time voters include those who were in elementary school on 9-11. They don’t know what it was like to get on a plane without having first removed their shoes. Many have traveled abroad as part of school exchange programs, and don’t consider the world stratified into “good” and “bad” countries. A wall fell in Germany, what wall? Someone who voted for Ronald Reagan at 18 years of age in 1980 is now 50 years old.

The technology evolution and the expansion of the electorate make for very unpredictable election outcomes and we live in a world of alternative information sources make it increasingly difficult to communicate a universal message in the modern era.