The college football season is in full swing and the picture for this year’s College Football Playoff is still as jumbled as it was in February. But there’s one question we can answer: Which team is the most valuable?

That would be Ohio State, which has surged to a $1.5 billion valuation, according to an analysis by Ryan Brewer, an associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus. That’s a 59.6% increase in value for a program that was already worth the most nationally according to the study, which analyzes what each team would be worth on the open market if sold like a professional sports franchise. Texas ($1.24 billion) and Oklahoma ($1 billion) round out the three programs worth an estimated 10 figures. With five of the top-10 programs, the SEC has the highest average team value at $523 million, followed by the Big Ten ($416 million) and Big 12 ($376 million).

 

The study broke down each program’s most recently available revenues and expenses, from 2016, making cash- flow adjustments, risk assessments and growth projections. Across the sport, the value of Football Bowl Subdivision teams spiked by 26% over the 2015 numbers, the product of cash flows that rose 24% and revenues that grew by 19%. One factor, Brewer noted, is that while the NFL has faced ratings declines in the last year, the same hasn’t been true 1/2 in the college game. “It’s been tremendous,” he said. “So far this season, we can confirm that college football is still strongly attended and strongly viewed.”

 

Overall, he adds concerns over concussions, youth participation in football and trends in media consumption could be questions for the sport going forward.

 

Although Ohio State leads the way, Brewer says it’s easy to envision Texas passing the Buckeyes in the not-too-distant future. The Longhorns boast the highest adjusted revenue ($145 million), but still trail in overall value because of the Buckeyes’ success under Urban Meyer and middling recent on-field performance at Texas, a school going on its third coach in the last five years. But that’s contingent on the Longhorns playing like the superpower they’re supposed to be.

 

For college football fans, this list may be the only place where the No. 1 team in the country isn’t No. 1. Alabama has won three of the last six national championships and owns a firm grip on the top spot in the polls. But here, the Crimson Tide rank No. 4, with an estimated value of $930 million. That’s still nearly three times Clemson ($328 million), the team that beat Alabama for the title a year ago.

 

Write to Andrew Beaton at andrew.beaton@wsj.com 2/2