08/22/2024

U.S. Job Growth Revised Down by the Most Since 2009

Why this time is different

There is a lot of debate about how much signal to take from the 818,000 downward revisions to U.S. payrolls — the largest since 2009. Is it signaling recession?

A few facts worth considering:

• By the time the 2009 revisions came out (824,000 jobs were overstated), the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) had already declared a recession six months earlier.
• Jobless claims, a contemporaneous data source, had surged north of 650,000, and the insured unemployment rate had peaked at 5 percent that very month.

Please select this link to read the complete article from CNBC.