Complete Story
05/03/2018
Ohio’s Primary: The Heart of It All
The Buckeye State’s bellwether status may be fading, but a wild May and November to come reflect some major national trends.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8.
— The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG Richard Cordray (D)[1] and current AG Mike DeWine (R) remain the favorites to win their respective party nominations. But upsets are possible on either side.
— Democrats may have the wind at their backs even in Ohio this fall, a state that moved significantly to the right in 2016. But if Democrats can’t win in 2018 in Ohio, when can they?
COLUMBUS, OH — It may be that Ohio, the great bellwether state, is moving away from the nation’s center in presidential elections. For the first time in more than a half century, the state’s popular vote outcome was not close to the national result in a presidential election: Donald Trump won the state in 2016 by eight points while losing nationally by two, giving the Buckeye State a significant Republican lean after decades of exhibiting only a slight such lean. Assuming Trump is on the ballot in 2020, he would likely start as a favorite to retain Ohio’s electoral votes unless his national standing significantly erodes over the next couple of years.
That said, for the 2018 election, Ohio is once again a microcosm of the nation’s politics. It has just about everything one could want in studying the broader themes of this year’s national midterm. Some of those themes include:
— Two competitive gubernatorial primaries that highlight familiar fissures in both parties.
